Gambling Discussion

Goron40 · Posted: Sat Jul 15, 2006 4:11 am Post subject: Gambling Discussion

Who we betting on, and why the hell are we doing it? Talk about your bets and maybe help your fellow players out. Come on, Guardians, Goron needs a new pair of shoes!

Because I've got money to throw around (you would too with this post count), I've placed 5k on every match except for "Round 1 - Kassato (Forte) v Magusmagus".

I have no idea how these people Role Play, anyone care to give an opinon, or care to share some of their more radical bets? I would be especially eager to hear from 3kul, he seems to know what he's doing having won 34k here already.

And will someone PLEASE explain how these damn odds work?

Shadowveil · Posted: Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:11 am Post subject:

With my comparatively miniscule post count, I don't have much cash to throw around. I do have money on Magusmagus winning his round. From what I have seen at Gameware, he is pretty good. I also have a small bet on the Guardians.

The odds, I think, control how much you win. As the odds on Magusmagus are 3 to 1, if he wins I get 3 times the amount I bet. Please correct me if I'm wrong about this!

3kul · Posted: Sat Jul 15, 2006 6:57 am Post subject:

As impressive as my current stats are Goron, they're a little messed up - I started betting back when the bookmakers first started up, and there were a few errors and mix ups with those earlier rounds. I don't mind explaining how it all works, but I'm not going to be giving away the ones I feel to be certain winners to just anybody Wink

.

Let's look at how I bet, using Shadowveil's example - I put 15000 Yen

on Magusmagus to win (I'm not that overconfident, just rich). Odds of Magus winning are 3/1, so if Magusmagus does win, then I'll be raking in a cool 45000 Yen

(so Shadowveil is correct, for every 1 Yen

I bet I would get back 3 Yen

if I were to win). If I were to bet my 15000 Yen

on Forte as Kassato to win though, the odds are only 2/1 (meaning that I'd only get 30000 Yen

for winning). Lower odds mean that there's a higher chance of this person winning, so in this case, the bookmaker thinks that there's a slightly better chance of Forte coming through to win. However, it's not much of a difference at all, so it's a tough match to call by odds alone.

To give a good example, when I was little, my Dad took me to the racetrack for fun one day (NO, my Dad did not have a gambling problem, he had begun to invest in racehorses and wanted to teach me about it Razz

) and told me that he'd bet a couple of bucks for me on any horse I liked. After he explained the odds to me, I picked the horse with the highest odds (I believe it was something like 108/1) thinking that I was a financial genius and that I'd soon be wallowing in riches. Of course, what my Dad had tried to explain was that the odds were higher for that horse because it didn't stand a chance - my horse actually took the lead for all of about 10 seconds before dropping right back and coming dead last.

So that's how it all works. Odds are lower for the ones more likely to win, because that way when they do win, the bookie (bookmaker) doesn't lose too much money. Odds are higher for the ones less likely to win, because there is still a slight chance that they'll win, or that the bookie doesn't know what he's on about and you'll win a bundle off practically nothing.

Now for my personal opinion (which I really should charge for, but this is a tough match to call, so consider this a freebie Goron Wink

). I bet on Magus because I've fought him before and found him to be incredibly versatile and very clever. I've only ever seen Forte RP on a few occassions before, and I found his style to be a bit too powerplayish for my likings. However, it's possible that he's changed his style since then, or that I have yet to see his good stuff. I guess the best advice I could give for this one is to wait a little while, and see how it begins to play out. If you still can't tell, just bet a small amount on whoever you like the look of (or don't bet at all), but you should be able to get a fair idea pretty quickly in the earlier rounds.

Goron40 · Posted: Sat Jul 15, 2006 8:06 am Post subject:

Yeah yeah I got that part. What about the odds that are like 3/2 or 5/3?

3kul · Posted: Sat Jul 15, 2006 8:45 am Post subject:

If I bet 15000 Yen

on something with odds of 3/2 (or 1.5 Yen

for every 1 Yen

I bet), if I were to win, I'd get 22500 Yen

in return. If the odds were 5/3 (or 1 Yen

and 2/3rds for every 1 Yen

I bet), I'd get 25000 Yen

. The equation you can use to work out any odds is as follows:

Your Bet x (Bookmaker's Odds) = Winnings!

A 15000 Yen

Bet at odds of 3/2 would be:
→ 15000 x (3/2) = 15000 x 1.5 = 22500 Yen

A 15000

Bet at odds of 5/3 would be:
→ 15000 x (5/3) = 15000 x 1.6667 = 25000 Yen

addman · Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:16 am Post subject:

Very thorough description there 3kul.

I'm pleased to announce that there have been around 40 bets so far on this tournament, and plenty of time for people to get in some more bets. I'd have a go myself, but then there may be talk of match rigging, so I'll refrain.

Kat_05 · Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:22 pm Post subject:

Any chance of you posting a list of bets for the curious members of the Dojo, or have you made claims of confidentiality?

Goron40 · Posted: Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:43 pm Post subject:

You can see all the bets here:

http://blackstar.inkwell.com.ru/bookie_allstats.php

3kul · Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 6:48 pm Post subject:

Woo! Looks like I picked the first judgings right, so provided that there's no changes in the results (UncleAsriel forgot to count spelling and grammar, but both contestants seemed fine with these) my current winnings are as follows:

* Micka to win for 5000 Yen

with odds at 4/1 = 20000 Yen

* Ace Addman to win for 5000 Yen

with odds at 5/1 = 25000 Yen

45k isn't too bad a start, although the total of the bets I've made is more than that, so it's not really a profit yet Razz

... How's everyone else gone so far?

Goron40 · Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 8:19 pm Post subject:

YAY! Addman wins!

And GBE loses... Ah well, only 25k for me.

Micka · Red Belt Old Friend Posts: 138

I only put 200 on myself, because i'm so poor. But i won! So now I am slightly less poor Smile

*Buys real cardboard box to live in*

Goron40 · Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 10:33 pm Post subject:

*Lives in a nice mansion type place... made of cardboard*

EDIT: Another 8.33 K for Goron on the Shaon/Cirrial Match!

Total: 32.33K

3kul · Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 11:15 pm Post subject:

I didn't bet on that match, as it seemed much too close to call... Out of curiosity though Goron, was there any particular motive behind your bet, or was it just random?

LordPsycho · Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 11:25 pm Post subject:

I have processed all matches that have a decision...and we should have a decision on all matches by Tuesday, Wednesday at the absolute latest.

Goron40 · Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 11:35 pm Post subject:

WHEEE! Goron's hot tonight! 35K net gain!

As for my motives, I dunno. I've talked to Shaon alot in JRChat, so I knew more about her. Instinct!